In a stunning turn of events, the US and India find themselves at odds over a critical global issue: Russian oil imports. While President Donald Trump boldly declared that India had agreed to halt its purchases of Russian oil, New Delhi has swiftly denied any such commitment, leaving the international community wondering where the truth lies. But here's where it gets controversial: could this disagreement signal a deeper rift in US-India relations, or is it merely a misunderstanding? Let’s dive in.
Trump announced on Wednesday that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had personally assured him that India would stop buying oil from Russia, a move Trump hailed as a 'big step' in aligning with US sanctions against Moscow. However, just a day later, India’s foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal cast doubt on this claim, stating he was unaware of any such conversation or agreement. This discrepancy raises questions about communication—or the lack thereof—between the two nations.
Earlier that day, India’s foreign ministry issued a statement emphasizing its role as a 'significant importer of oil and gas,' without directly addressing Russia or Modi’s alleged assurance. The statement highlighted India’s energy policy goals: stabilizing prices and securing supplies through diversified sourcing. This approach, while pragmatic, underscores India’s reluctance to abruptly sever ties with its largest oil supplier, especially amid its booming economy and growing population of over 1.4 billion people.
And this is the part most people miss: India’s relationship with Russia runs deep, both historically and economically. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, India has emerged as one of Moscow’s top oil buyers, even as Western sanctions targeted Russia’s energy sector. For New Delhi, this isn’t just about oil—it’s about maintaining strategic autonomy and balancing global pressures with domestic needs.
Trump’s frustration with India’s stance culminated in August when he imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, doubling down on earlier penalties. But is this a fair move, or an overreach? Critics argue that such tariffs could backfire, straining ties further and pushing India closer to Russia. After all, as Muyu Xu, a senior oil analyst at Kpler, points out, India cannot simply stop buying Russian oil overnight. Russia supplies roughly 1.7–1.8 million barrels per day—a volume too large to replace easily, especially given differences in crude quality and refinery compatibility.
Data from Kpler reveals a nuanced picture: while state-owned refiners like Indian Oil Corporation Limited have reduced Russian oil purchases in recent months, private players have stepped up their intake. For instance, Indian Oil Corporation Limited bought 10.35 million barrels in January, compared to 4.62 million in September, and 7.03 million so far in October. These figures suggest a complex, evolving strategy rather than a clear-cut policy shift.
CNN has reached out to Indian Oil Corporation Limited for comment on their future plans and the factors driving their sourcing decisions. Meanwhile, Modi’s stance resonates with his political brand as a strong leader prioritizing India’s interests on the global stage. His refusal to yield to US pressure, while risky, aligns with his image as a leader unwilling to compromise his nation’s energy security.
In recent weeks, diplomats from both New Delhi and Washington have been working to mend fences, with trade delegations aiming to finalize deals. Earlier this month, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar acknowledged ongoing friction, attributing much of it to unresolved trade negotiations. 'We have not arrived at a landing ground for our trade discussions,' he admitted, while assuring that India remains committed to finding a solution. 'These issues need to be negotiated, discussed, and resolved—and that’s exactly what we’re trying to do,' he added.
Here’s the burning question: Can the US and India reconcile their differences over Russian oil, or will this issue continue to strain their relationship? And more importantly, is it fair to expect India to sacrifice its energy security for the sake of global sanctions? Let us know your thoughts in the comments—this debate is far from over.
